Utah: Back on Track

The news behind this post is the reason why one should not become so breathless over a single poll (yes, people who blogged ad absurdium about this Quinnipiac poll, I’m talking about you).

In a previous post (this one here, by the way), I made reference to a Deseret News survey from March (this one here, by the way) that showed that the Democratic Party candidate for president, Hillary Clinton, would defeat the Republican Party candidate for president, Donald Trump in the state of Utah by a margin of 38%-36%.

It was only one poll, but I did write about the possibility of Utah flipping from red to blue.

However, I have also been on record in this blog that it is trends that matter and not a single poll.

With that in mind, I bring your attention to the latest survey from UtahPolicy.com that was released on May 16. In this survey (article here), Trump defeats Clinton by a margin of 43%-30% (with 26% still undecided who to vote for). This poll asked 588 voters who their presidential preference was and the margin of error was 4.04 percentage points. Even with the margin of error accounted for, this is a definitive win for Donald Trump in the Beehive State.

In my research, I have only been able to find three polls taken about the attitudes of Utah’s voters since the start of 2016. There is the March Deseret News poll I mentioned earlier that showed a Clinton lead of 2 percentage points. There is a later March survey from UtahPolicy.com (article here) that shows Trump and Clinton tied at 38% (600 adult Utahns, margin of error 4.0 percentage points) with 25% being undecided. Now there is this May poll from UtahPolicy showing a Trump lead of 13 percentage points in Utah.

The trend of this trio of surveys shows Trump extending his lead.

Utah and its six votes in the Electoral College are back on track on being solid footing for the presidential candidate from the Republican Party.

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One thought on “Utah: Back on Track

  1. Pingback: Utah: The Pendulum Continues | Swing State Symphony

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