And there was much rejoicing.
The last of my Swing State Symphony, New Mexico, has finally released a survey documenting the presidential preferences of the citizens of the Land of Enchantment.
In my baseline tally, I categorized New Mexico as a “Tossup” state. One reason for this designation has to do with the state’s history in previous American presidential elections. Over the past seven elections (since 1988), the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party has won five (1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012) and the presidential nominee of the Republican Party has won two (1988, 2004). Over the last four presidential elections (since 2000), the average margin of victory for the three wins by the Democratic Party has been 8.45% (2000: Gore beats Bush by 0.06%, 2008: Obama defeats McCain by 15.13%, 2012: Obama wins over Romney by 10.15%). When the Republican Party victory in 2004 where Bush defeating Kerry by 0.79% is thrown into the equation, the median margin of victory for the Democratic Party over the past four presidential elections is 5.11%.
Those historical numbers did not persuade me by enough of a margin to place New Mexico in the “Leaning” bucket. So, since New Mexico is in the “Tossup” bin, I was incredibly enthusiastic to learn that a state poll had been released to see where the balance now lay.
In the middle of May, Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a survey (802 likely voters, margin of error 3.5 percentage points, report here) that showed that in a hypothetical presidential contest, the nominee of the Democratic Party (Hillary Clinton) wins 41% of the voter’s support, the nominee of the Republican Party (Donald Trump) wins 33% of the voter’s support, and the nominee of the Libertarian Party (Gary Johnson) wins 14% of the voter’s support.
It is no surprise that Johnson is included as an option to New Mexico voters as he once served as the governor of that state.
From the report, the writers make this assertion about party affiliation and how wedded Republican and Democratic voters are to their respective nominees:
Clinton and Trump hold large leads among their parties, but not at levels normally seen among nominees. Clinton receives the support of 67 percent of Democrats to Trump’s 11 percent and Johnson’s 10 percent. Trump, meanwhile, receives the support of 62 percent of Republicans to Johnson’s 16 percent and Clinton’s 14 percent.
In terms of race, the report has the following figures:
Clinton receives the support of 56 percent of Hispanic voters to Trump’s 19 percent and Johnson’s 19 percent. Trump leads with white voters at 47 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent and Johnson’s 14 percent. In ethnicities listed as “other,” Clinton leads 41 percent to Trump’s 23 percent and Johnson’s 21 percent.
I look forward to more polls from New Mexico to see how this data and other figures vacillate between now and Election Day.