Wisconsin: Marquette: June 2016

On Wisconsin with another poll released by Marquette University Law School. The results of this poll (626 likely voters, margin of error 4.9 percentage points, press release here) show the presumptive presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, leading the presumptive presidential nominee of the Republican Party, Donald Trump by 9 percentage points (46%-37%).*

Since the start of 2016, Marquette University has released four polls. Including this most recent survey, this organization did polling in late March and late January. From January to today, the needle for each major party presidential candidate has barely moved.

In January, the results from Marquette (806 registered voters, margin of error 4 percentage points, topline results here), show Clinton leading Trump 47%-38% (9 percentage points). In March, the results from Marquette (1,405 registered voters, margin of error 3.3 percentage points, press release here) show Clinton leading Trump by 10 percentage points (47%-37%).

In my baseline tally, Wisconsin was categorized as a “Leaning” state towards the Democratic Party. With this latest poll from Marquette being the ninth consecutive poll since the start of 2016 to show Clinton leading Trump (complete list from Real Clear Politics here and electiongraphs.com here)** by an overall average of 11 percentage points, “leaning” Democratic may not be the correct descriptive word anymore for the Badger State.

 

*Presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party, Gary Johnson, received 0.3% of the vote in this June poll.

**Electiongraphs.com includes a Marquette poll from February that Real Clear Politics does not have in its list. This February survey shows Clinton leading Trump by 10 percentage points (47%-37%). Real Clear Politics (as of this writing) includes the Marquette June poll that electiongraphs.com does not.

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